2026 national housing forecast: Better days ahead
2026 national housing forecast: Better days ahead
Following three tough years, next year’s housing market is projected to improve for homebuyers and sellers nationwide. National economists expect 2026 to bring a modest rebound in sales, prices and inventory, according to forecasts from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and Realtor.com.
The long-awaited turnaround brings welcome news, especially if you're seeking to buy your first or next home, or are preparing to sell your current property.
Meaningful rebound expected in 2026
After near-flat sales in 2025, existing home sales are expected to tick upward in 2026.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told attendees of November’s Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference to expect a 14% rise in year-over-year existing-home sales in 2026, assuming mortgage rates settle around 6% and boost affordability. Yun also forecasts a 4% rise in home prices, supported by job growth and tight housing supply.
Realtor.com’s 2026 Housing Forecast paints a more moderate outlook: a 1.7% rise in existing-home sales, mortgage rates averaging 6.3%, home prices up 2.2%, and inventory climbing 8.9%. The report notes that affordability will remain a hurdle for many buyers because home prices and financing costs remain high.
Economic uncertainty continues to complicate projections, which is reflected in the variation of among economists’ forecasts.
Yun notes persistent economic headwinds and the current low ebb of consumer sentiment. “People are not happy with the direction of the economy, and they’re beginning to default on loans,” he says. “Sentiment is lower than it was 15 years ago when we had a recession.”
Even so, Yun says the economy is not headed for a recession.
"Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales," Yun said. "Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining."
He points to several key indicators shaping the 2026 outlook:
·Job gains are continuing, though at a slower pace.
·The stock market might see a correction, due to potential overvaluation tied to 10 of the largest technology companies, rather than a broad base of the 500 largest across industries.
·Consumer defaults on auto loans, credit cards, and student loans are rising, though mortgage defaults are not.
·Real estate wealth is at record highs.
·Mortgage rates saw minor rate cuts in late 2025, and he expects up to three more cuts ahead.
Price reductions and days on market rise
Yun told the Boulder audience that national existing home sales remain below COVID and pre-COVID levels. With the slower market this year, days on market are rising, and homes that sit longer tend to see steeper price reductions.
In a NAR article, he shared averages for reductions based on days on market:
0–14 days: 4.9% cut
15–30 days: 6.1% cut
31–60 days: 7.3% cut
61–90 days: 9% cut
91–120 days: 10.6% cut
Over 120 days: 13.8% cut
New housing starts also impact pricing. In states with robust new construction, home prices are driven down. Yun points out that Denver continues to see strong building activity, and price appreciation statewide is moderate.
Colorado and Boulder Valley maintain strong job growth
Steady job growth and modestly lower mortgage rates could fuel a surge in home sales. Colorado and Boulder County’s strong labor market provides a solid foundation for homebuyer confidence.
Yun notes that Colorado now has 6.6% more jobs than five years ago. While still above the national average, the growth trails the 10% increases seen in Utah, the Carolinas, Florida and Texas.
Boulder-area employment levels have doubled since 1990. Even with the slight rise in unemployment, the local rate remains aligned with the nation at a relatively low 4.4%.
The bottom line
While economic challenges are expected to continue nationwide, economists believe they will be manageable. With even modestly lower interest rates, home sales should improve in 2026. But housing market pressures will continue, giving buyers more leverage to negotiate. Sellers should prepare for longer days on the market and price their homes carefully.
Read the complete 2026 forecasts at (https://bizwest.com/2025/11/21/yun-residential-real-estate-can-expect-a-recovery-in-2026-after-3-down-years/), (https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/economy/housing-market-set-for-a-2026-comeback-nar-predicts), and (https://www.realtor.com/research/2026-national-housing-forecast/).
